‘Yes, There Will Be Growth in the Spring!’ BLURB

Calendars US: Tues: Consumer Confidence 101.0; Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index -8; S&P/CS HPI Composite Index 20 City -0.5%m/m/2.5%y/y; Wholesale Inventories 0.2%; API Weekly Crude Oil Inventories; Barr. Wed: MBA Mortgage Applications; Pending Home Sales -3.0%; Crude Oil Inventories & Gasoline Production; Barr. (Bloomberg estimates) Global:...

9h

‘Yes, There Will Be Growth in the Spring!’

Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: Stock market bears have long expected a recession, but now the prospective credit crunch that could cause one seems more plausible after the SVB crisis. … We expect that the Fed and FDIC will contain the crisis. But we do see regional banks paying higher deposit rates now to prevent...

9h

wiar 03-27-23

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: ‘Is It Safe?’ The recent banking crisis has heightened fears of a recession. But still the S&P 500 is up ytd—buoyed greatly by the MegaCap-8 stocks. … The SVB debacle hasn’t changed our economic outlook, which pegs the odds of a recession at a relatively high 40%, as we’re not convinced it will lead to...

14h

‘Is It Safe?’ BLURB

Calendars US: Mon: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index; Jefferson. Tues: Consumer Confidence 101.0; Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index -8; S&P/CS HPI Composite Index 20 City -0.5%m/m/2.5%y/y; Wholesale Inventories 0.2%; API Weekly Crude Oil Inventories; Barr. (Bloomberg estimates) Global: Mon: Germany Ifo Business Climate Index, Current Assessment, and...

1d

‘Is It Safe?’

Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: The recent banking crisis has heightened fears of a recession. But still the S&P 500 is up ytd—buoyed greatly by the MegaCap-8 stocks. … The SVB debacle hasn’t changed our economic outlook, which pegs the odds of a recession at a relatively high 40%, as we’re not convinced it...

1d

wiar 03-24-23

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Communication Services & AI The S&P 500’s Communication Services sector has outperformed all ten of its counterparts so far this year, up 18% ytd. Jackie examines the constituent industries and companies that have been driving the sector’s strong showing, with a particular focus on Meta, up 68% ytd....

3d

wiar 03-23-23

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Communication Services & AI The S&P 500’s Communication Services sector has outperformed all ten of its counterparts so far this year, up 18% ytd. Jackie examines the constituent industries and companies that have been driving the sector’s strong showing, with a particular focus on Meta, up 68% ytd....

3d

Communication Services & AI BLURB

Calendars US: Thurs: Initial & Continuous Jobless Claims 197k/1.684m; New Home Sales 650k; Kansas City Manufacturing Index; Chicago Fed National Activity; Natural Gas Storage. Fri: Durable Goods Orders, Total, Core, and Core Nondefense Capital Goods Orders 0.6%/0.2%/0.1%; C-PMI, M-PMI, and NM-PMI Flash Estimates 47.5/47.0/50.0; Baker-Hughes Rig...

5d

Communication Services & AI

Check out the accompanying pdf and chart collection. Executive Summary: The S&P 500’s Communication Services sector has outperformed all ten of its counterparts so far this year, up 18% ytd. Jackie examines the constituent industries and companies that have been driving the sector’s strong showing, with a particular focus on Meta, up 68% ytd. …...

5d

wiar 03-22-23

Latest Morning Briefing Executive Summary: Looking Ahead To Earnings Season Industry analysts and company managements have an optimism bias that blinds them to encroaching recessions. So when a recession looms, forward earnings’ reliability as an indicator of actual earnings to come falters. … While analysts have been cutting their 2023 and 2024 earnings...

5d