With news items such How the Trump Whale Correctly Called the Election and Prediction markets got Trump’s victory right; Betting markets predicted a Trump victory, while traditional polls were showing a tossup, prediction markets are having their coming-out party. Before going on, let me emphasize that the headline, “Prediction markets got Trump’s...

Several people pointed me to this news report on a successful bettor in an election prediction market: Not only did he see Donald Trump winning the presidency, he wagered that Trump would win the popular vote—an outcome that many political observers saw as unlikely. . . . He made his wagers on Polymarket, a crypto-based betting platform, using four...

This post is by Phil. A couple of months ago, this blog had a discussion that was prompted by the fact that 2 of the top 5 female American tennis players are the children of billionaires. One, that could be a coincidence, but with two it seems that there must be something going on. See the discussion. Well, right around the time Andrew made...

This is Jessica. Larry Hedges relayed a quote to me recently that I thought others here might appreciate. It appears in an old Annals of Mathematical Statistics paper by Tukey and Cornfield: In almost any practical situation where analytical statistics is applied, the inference from the observations to the conclusion has two parts, only the first of...

I came across this blog comment from a couple years ago saying that, whatever was going on in the head of Brian “Pizzagate” Wansink when he wrote up those papers with the fake data, in any case his papers papers are not to be believed; they’re a sort of genre fiction. I like this idea, not just the bad science it’s false (hence “fiction,” as in psychologist...

Here’s another job opportunity for baseball enthusiasts and Stan users! The Boston Red Sox are building out their R&D group and are currently hiring for the position of Senior Analyst, Baseball Analytics. Although the listed qualifications don’t specifically mention Stan, I’ve been told they have a particular interest in applicants who have experience...